COVID-19: All key statistics worsen in Hungary

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The number of patients with coronavirus infection in Hungarian hospitals grew 1.5 times and the number of Covid patients in need of artificial ventilation doubled over the seven days up to 6 December compared to the previous week, according to the latest figures released by koronavirus.gov.hu. The marked increase follows significant w/w decline in the previous week. Volatility in the official data remains constant, and after the significant worsening we should see improvement in next Wednesday's report.
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If there's one thing you can say about Hungary's official Covid statistics is that they are hectic but at least there's a consistency in this roller-coaster ride of unreliable data. It's enough to take a look either at the following table or the charts below.

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The daily average of coronavirus-related deaths rose to 7 for the last 7 days from 6 a week earlier, but it is still well below 17-20 in mid/end-October.

As regards the total number of Covid deaths, Hungary continues to beat everyone in the region. In terms of deaths per one million population Hungary is 3rd in the world, with 5,027 fatalities behind Bulgaria (5,560) and Peru (6,458).

Here are a few charts about the key indicators that show the main developments in the pandemic since mid-May:

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The 'On ventilator / In hospital' ratio was falling constantly since May, although there was a spike in late August. The ratio has been steadily rising since mid-Sept and reached 1.9% in mid-October, only to rather inexplicably drop to 1.1% after and then jump back to 1.8% and drop abruptly again to 1.3% two weeks ago. Last week the ratio edged up to 1.4%, jumped back to 2.1% and now has retreated to 1.4% again. The downward trend remains intact, though.

The following chart shows the daily average number of Covid deaths as a percentage of Covid patients in hospital and on ventilator. There is a downward trend in the former and a slight upward trend in the latter. The number of ventilated patients used in the graph is an adjusted figure, i.e. the official data multiplied by 1.4 to reflect the changes in methodology introduced by local authorities last November (invasive vs. non-invasive ventilation). The pattern looks absolutely the same without the adjustment, only the death/ventilated ratios are higher.

The following chart uses an indicator conceived by Balázs Pártos, an enthusiast with a medical background who was keeping a very close eye on the pandemic and made rather accurate estimates based on the CFR/OCC ratio. CFR = [deaths / confirmed cases], OCC = [deaths / (deaths + recoveries)].

Vaccine uptake picks up

A total of 6,895 COVID-19 shots have been administered in Hungary over the past seven days, up 13% from 6,115 a week ago, which follows a 12% w/w drop.

After two weeks of decline (-13%, -10%), the daily average rose to 985 doses from 874 a week ago.

The number of 4th doses administered (6,148 or 878 per day) shows a 15% w/w growth, and the number of 3rd jabs administered (450 or 64 per day) shows a 1% drop after a 22% decrease on the preceding week. The daily average of 1st and 2nd shots was 22 and 21, respectively, reaching a total of 152 and 145 over the seven days up to 6 Dec.

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Cover photo: Getty Images

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