Economy 23 March 2023, 12:55pm

Flu epidemic winding down, share of Covid patients in hospital up in Hungary

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The number of respiratory illnesses and of people seeking medical help with influenza-like symptoms dropped sharply in Hungary over the past seven days compared to the preceding week, the latest weekly report of the National Centre for Public Health (NNK) showed on Thursday. Meanwhile, the share of people hospitalised with coronavirus infection has jumped among patients with SARI.

The NNK said that on the 11th week of the year, 221,400 people went to the doctor with symptoms of severe acute respiratory infections (down from 275,700 a week earlier), of whom 44,100 (19.9%) were diagnosed with influenza-like illness, in contrast with 62,900 (22.8%) a week earlier.

If it were not for the holiday season when people are less inclined to visit the GP's office and complain about "just a wee cough", we would not see that dip towards end-2022 in the lines below. Also, knowing how data is provided, collected, processed and published in Hungary when it comes to infections (may it be coronavirus or the flu), we should not be surprised to see the system taking a break for a while towards year-end.

The SARI figure shows a nearly 20% drop (the w/w data showed -6.7% a week ago), and the number of flu-like symptoms has also fallen by almost 30% (vs. -4.3% a week ago), which reaffirms our view expressed a fortnight ago that the flu season has peaked and is winding down.

GPs warned two weeks ago that the epidemic could drag out this year and may not be over even at the end of March. while they were hopeful that the milder weather will reduce the prevalence of SARI and the flu. It seems their hopes were not groundless.

The age breakdown (see the four graphs below) shows that SARI affected primarily children, and to a smaller extent young adults since the 40th week of last year, while flu-like illnesses started to "pick on" children and young Hungarians from the fourth week of 2023.

Of course, the greater number of infections among children also has to do with the fact that concerned parents generally take their offspring to a paediatrician much more willingly and frequently than older people seek medical help, thinking they will just tough it out.

Of all the patients that went to the doctor with flu-like symptoms, 43% (18,963) were children. 28.9% were aged 15-34 (12,745), 20.8% (9,173) were in the 35-59 age group, and 7.3% (3,219) were over 60.

As for the age breakdown of people going to the doctor with SARI, 50% (110,700) were children, 24.4% were aged 15-34 (54,022), 17.3% (38,302) were in the 35-59 age group, and 8.3% (18,376) were over 60.

OF THE 102 RESPIRATORY SPECIMENS SENT IN BY DOCTORS, 43 (42.2%) WERE FOUND TO BE INFLUENZA OF SOME TYPE, nine (8.8%) WERE SARS-COV-2, AND THREE (2.9%) PATIENTS HAD RESPIRATORY GIANT CELL VIRUS (RSV).

This compares with 52.4%, 4.0% and 2.4% the week before, respectively.

The green line on the graph below suggested two weeks ago that the flu season was over, and we were right to note that the uptick (to 52.4% from 46%) last week should not materially change this view.

Last week, 269 people (268 on the preceding week) were hospitalised for severe acute respiratory infections, 40 of whom required intensive care (44 a week earlier). Of the 269 patients, 23.8% (64) were aged 2 years or younger (down from 32.1% or 86) and 52.0% (140) were aged 60 years or older (down from 41.4% or 111).

Of the patients requiring hospital care, 42 (15.6%) were affected by influenza (vs. 56 or 20.9% a week ago), 87 (32.3%) by SARS-CoV-2 (vs. 46 or 17.2% a week ago) and 31 (11.5%) by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or respiratory giant cell infection (vs. 30 or 11.2%).

Of the RSV-positive patients, 73.3% (vs. 69.6% a week earlier) were aged 2 years or younger, and 82.6% (vs. 67.3%) of those infected with the coronavirus were aged 60 years or older.

Cover photo: Getty Images