Hospitalisations subside in Hungary, with influenza remaining key pathogen

EDITOR'S NOTE:
There were only two working days in the 52nd week of 2025 (22–28 December) and only three in the first week of 2026 (29 December–4 January), resulting in a drop in the number of Hungarians seeking medical attention for acute respiratory infections (ARIs), including influenza-like illnesses (ILIs).

However, this relief is both temporary and deceptive. The number of infections has not actually decreased; it is just that fewer people sought medical help due to the holidays. The respiratory infection season tends to peak between the third and eighth weeks of the new year, so a drop in infections could not be expected until early March at the earliest.

As regards the estimated number of Hungarians seeking medical help with acute respiraotry infection, the current respiratory season started worse than in the previous years. The ARI numbers have been lower than in the previous three years for five consecutive weeks, but the 49th week brought a change, and by the 51st week the number of ARI reports was higher than on the same week of the previous three seasons. The second week of 2026, however, shows the second lowest ARI figure compared to the previous three seasons.

The number of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) was the highest compared to the past three years on the 51st week. As we noted before, the comparability of the end-year data is difficult due to the holiday season and the fact that there are even gaps in the NNGYK reports. Nevertheless, there was a sharp drop reported for the first week of 2026, but we're 'back to normal' so to speak, with almost as many ILI reports than a year earlier.

The share of ILI in ARI was 20.1%, higher than in the previous three years, having risen for the eighth week in a row.

With regard to the number of ARI patients per 100,000 inhabitants, we were worse off on the 2nd week only a year ago. The current figure is not that dramatic, but the peak is still weeks away.

The Chief Medical Officer emphasised a few weeks ago that the new type of influenza A virus had also been identified in Hungary. This may explain why the number of cases exceeded the epidemic threshold so early this year, in December. This level is typically only reached in January.

Based on the available data, it appears that the new virus strain does not cause more severe illness than previous strains. hospitalisation data, however, should be watched as a possible red flag in this respect.

While the total number of samples tested exceeds the 2022/23 figure by the 50th week, it remains below the 2023/24 and 2024/25 figures.

Positivity rates

As you can see on the graph below, there was a swtich between influenza and coronavirus on the 51st week and we should not expect the ratios to reverse in the remainder of the season, either.

The coronavirus positivity rate edged up to 6.8% from 4.3%, which compares with 6.3% a year ago, 13.6% two years ago and 6.5% three years ago.

The influenza positivity rate remained unchanged at 30.4%. It compares with 35.3% a year ago, 14.0% two years ago and 14.3% three years ago.

The first time samples showed the presence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was on the 46th week and although the positivity rate remains low, it's worth pointing out that it peaked around 24% at the end of 2022, early 2023. However, the patterns of the last three seasons have provided very little useful information for making forecasts. Going out on a limb, based on the number of infections so far we should expect the RSV positivity rate to remain under 15%. The average of the past three seasons is 4.9%.

Hospitalisations

There were186 people in hospital with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), down 15.5% from 220 a week ago which was a record high this year.

12 of them tested positive for COVID-19 (6.5%), which compares with 8.8% in 2024/25 and 47% in 2023/24. A year ago, hospitals admitted a lot more SARI patients on the 2nd week (238), while the 2023/24 figure was lower at 166 and the 2022/23 figure higher at 219.

17 of the 186 patients needed intensive of subintensive care, a ratio of 9.1%, down from 12.3% a week ago which was the highest percentage this year. There were 21 SARI patients in ICU on the same week a year ago (8.8%) and 19 two years ago (11.4%).

Half of people admitted to hospital with a coronavirus infection were over 60 years old (8 in total), and more than 45% of SARI patients were in this age group (84 in total). However, almost a quarter (24.4%) of SARI patients were under two years old (45 in total).

The National Centre for Public Health and Pharmacy (NNGYK) also had some key data published since the official end of the previous respiratory season on the 20th week, which show a general increase in the number of hospitalsed SARI patients since the 35th week, except for a surprise drop on the 42nd and 45th week.

influenza was responsible for more hospitalisations than covid-19 For the fourth consecutive week (41.9% versus 6.5%, see detailed chart below).

Up to the 51st week, this season was less severe than previous ones in terms of the proportion of people with ARI who ended up in hospital. However, a sharp increase was observed in the 51st week, and the percentage in the first week of 2026 showed the worst situation compared to the previous three seasons. Fortunately, the major worsening was followed by a significant correction.

The patterns of the previous years suggest that the ratio of coronavirus infections in hospitalisations should keep dropping and get close to 0-10% by the 5th or 6th week of next year. In parallel with this, the proportion of influenza infections behind hospitalisations has started to pick up already as expected. And then there's the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to consider.

This is how the pathogens 'swapped places' as the main reason behind hospitalisations last year, although there's absolutely no guarantee that we'll see the same trajectories this year.

Here is a side-by-side comparison of hospitalisations by type of infection for the current and past respiratory infection seasons. Although we have chosen not to plot it on this particular chart, note that the share of coronavirus infection behind hospitalisations hovered between 47% and 74% in the first 15 weeks of the 2023/24 season.

And this is how they have been changed in the current and past three seasons of respiratory infections. (Note that the the RSV was not reported to be behind any hospitalisation until the 47th week in 2024 and the 49th week in 2023.)

Age breakdown

37.7% of people seeking medical help with an acute respiratory infection (ARI) in week 2 were children aged up to 14 (cc. 79,600), up from 30,640 a week earlier. Almost 30% (cc 61,200) were aged 15–34.

The graphs below show a breakdown of ARI patients by age group for this year and the previous two seasons.

When it comes to ILI, the most affected age group was those aged between 15 and 34 years, accounting for 15,300 (36%) of all patients with influenza-like illness, followed by the 0-14 age group (12,240 or 28.8%).

Cover image (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images