Economy 22 September 2021, 1:05pm

COVID-19: More than 500 new cases, over 400 people in hospital in Hungary

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Hungarian authorities diagnosed 501 people with COVID-19 and 2 people died of coronavirus-related diseases over the past 24 hoursdays , koronavirus.gov.hu reported on Wednesday. The 3-day average test positivity rate rose to nearly 3.4%%. The number of people hospitalised due to SARS-Cov-2 is 406, and about 30% more people need artificial ventilation than a year ago when the number of new cases was 26% higher and there were 32% more people in hospital than currently.

koronavírus magyarországon járvány kórház lélegeztetőgép

The two charts below how August and September 2021 compare with August and September 2020 in terms of new COVID-19 cases and their accumulation. Oddly, there was a clear change in the trend in September when the number of new confirmed daily COVID-19 cases was a lot higher in 2020 than this year, unlike in August. Consequently, the curves showing the accumulation of daily figures also swapped places.

The 7-day averages also show the same pattern (left-hand chart).

While on Monday, the number of new confirmed daily COVID-19 cases was three times as high a year ago (289 vs. 876) the gap shrunk (501 vs. 633), while only 24% fewer people are in hospital (406 vs. 534), and 28% more of them need mechanical ventilation (46 vs. 36).

Indeed, the focus should be on hospitalisation, patients on ventilator and Covid deaths instead of the number of new cases per day, given that a low number of tests are performed and generally only those are tested that show severe Covid symptoms.

Contrary to the somewhat reassuring trend the charts depicting case numbers above might suggest, the following ones certainly bode ill.

The number of Covid patients in hospital may look reassuring on the left-hand chart going up to 30 September, but if you take a look on the r-h chart, well... things could turn really ugly here, folks!

Even though vaccines were not in use a year ago and we have them now, the situation in terms of hospitalisation and ventilation should not be half as bad as it was last year. We can also hope that some cross-immunity exists to some degree at least, but with the new Delta variant and with this many people in hospital it might be a pipe dream.

The situation on the ventilation front is even more dramatic, especially if you look at the chart on the right, realising that already more of those hospitalised with coronavirus end up in ICUs (Hungarian authorities do not disclose such data, though) and on ventilator.

The most likely explanation is that unvaccinated people make up the majority of severe cases, but authorities do not disclose the number or percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated people among the infected / hospitalised / ventilated people.

Toxicologist Gábor Zacher, head physician at the Hatvan hospital, told commercial broadcaster RTL on Tuesday that 95% of Covid patients admitted in hospitals are unvaccinated.

Given that the cabinet relies almost exclusively on vaccines and has virtually no restriction in place that would mitigate Covid risks and help stem the spread of the more contagious Delta variant, it is incomprehensible why these numbers are not released. Provided they would prove that vaccines work and if you don't get inoculated against coronavirus, your chances are much higher of getting infected, having severe symptoms, needing hospitalisation and possibly ending up on tubes and then in the morgue.

This view is shared by virus expert Miklós Rusvai, who told InfoRadio today that that the best way to breathe life into the ailing vaccination programme would be if authorities revealed how many of the newly infected people (those that are in hospital, on ventilator or already dead) were vaccinated and how many were not.

If you want less foreboding charts, here you go, although the trend is far from reassuring.

On 21 September 2021, about 14,000 tests yielded 501 positive cases, while 633 positive cases were detected in 6,000 samples a year earlier.

The 3-day average test positivity rate went up to 3.3% from 2.8% a week ago and it compares with 6.9% a year go. The effective reproduction rate (R) of COVID-19 is just about where it was a year ago (give or take a couple of days).

The 3-day/21-day ratio of test positivity rose to over 127%, and the 7-day average of the 3d/21d ratio is nearly 120%.

The 3-day average ratio of COVID-19 patients on ventilator to the number of people hospitalised with coronavirus infection stood at 11.5% on 21 September 2021 versus 6.9% a year ago. The 7-day average of 11.6% compares with 7.2%.

The four charts below show the absolute number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals and on ventilators (top two) as well as two ratios (COVID-19 cases in hospital / Active cases, and COVID-19 cases on ventilator / Cases in hospital, bottom two.) The left-hand charts depict a longer period (15 June - 21 Sept), while the right-hand ones show changes over a shorter period (25 July - 21 Sept). The ascending trend is clear as regards the number of people in hospital and on ventilator.

The charts below show that the percentage (3-day average) of those requiring artificial ventilation of those that are in hospital with COVID-19 dropped in the second half of last week, but it is sligthly up again at 11.5% (6.9% a year ago). Overall, the number of new patients in more severe condition has been rising sharply, and so has the hospitalisation of active cases, and there's an even more dramatic rise in ICU cases, which would eventually lead to more people on ventilators and more deaths than a year ago.