Economy 23 November 2023, 11:15am

Flu season intensifies in Hungary, hospital stats improve

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The number of Hungarians seeking medical help with severe acute respiratory infections, including influenza-like symptoms has increased further on the 46th week (Nov.13-19) in Hungary, data by the National Public Health Centre (NNK) showed on Thursday. The number of tests performed remains extremely low, and although the coronavirus positivity rate has dropped some, almost 80% of hospitalised SARI patients are treated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

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The flu season generally peaks between the 7th and 10th week of the year, but the highest figures can vary greatly from one year to another. The coronavirus pandemic, for instance, put a serious dent into the spread of the flu (see graph below).

On the 46th week, a total of 191,000 people sought medical help with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), of whom 18,900 (9.9%) had flu-like symptoms. The former figure marks a 17.5% increase over the 45th week and the latter a 22% rise. The previous jump came on the back of two short weeks, with public holidays on 1 Nov and 23 Oct., when fewer people went to the doctor, and the autumn break in schools also helped in this respect.

The graph below allows a comparison with weeks 40 to 46 of 2022, showing lower figures for the number of SARI "patients" and a higher figure for those that visited GPs with flu-like symptoms.

We can also compare the SARI and flu numbers for 100,000 inhabitants. These charts will say more when we have more than just a couple weeks of data, but they already strongly suggest that the flu season might be less severe in 2023/24 than in 2022/23.

We need to highlight that this year authorities perform way more tests than a year ago, even though the number of samples tested remains extremely low (265 in total on a national level last week, down from 272 a week earlier).

The number of samples tested on the 46th week was slightly lower than on the 45th week, with the COVID-19 positivity rate down a bit. Testing is almost non-existent and we may draw only extremely cautious conclusions from these findings as regards the bigger picture on the current epidemiological situation. This is basically the only set of Covid data authorities provide besides weekly wastewater sampling results.

As authorities have been publishing separate SARI and flu statistics only since 2022, a longer-term comparison is possible only for the number of people seeking medical help with influenza-like symptoms.

There were 161 people in hospital with SARI on the 46th week, versus 158 a week earlier. More than two thirds (68.3%) of them were treated with COVID-19, down from 71.5% a week earlier. Coronavirus was the main pathogen found in samples early in the flu season last year too. Actually, the first time the share of flu viruses in samples was higher than the share of SARS-CoV-2 occurred only at the start of this year in the 2022/23 flu season.

86 (78.2%) of the 110 COVID-19 patients were aged 60 and over, with all three metrics (people in hospital with Covid, 60+ Covid patients and their ratio) showing a moderation from a week ago.

Less than 14% of those hospitalised with SARI were children aged 2 years or younger, while nearly 66% of them were aged 60 and over. Both percentages correspond to a drop from a week ago. Their numbers have not changed meaningfully.

Another important indicator of the severity of an epidemic is how many of those hospitalised end up in the intensive care unit (or in the morgue for that matter). The NNK does not reveal mortality stats, though.

Of the 161 in hospital, 15 were in the ICU, which corresponds to a 9.3% ratio, down from 9.5% a week earlier.

Finally, we have an age breakdown both for SARI and flu patients. Children up to the age of 14 are on top of the SARI age rankings in terms of numbers, while they are only on the 3rd spot in the flu rankings, behind those between 35 and 59 and the hardest-hit 15-34 age group. The right-hand charts show the share of people with SARI and flu-like symptoms by age group.

Looking back on the 2022/23 data we find that the 0-14 age group was the hardest hit throughout the flu season in terms of SARI, while in terms of flu-like symptoms they were the most affected age group between the 3rd and the 15th week of this year, i.e. from mid-January to mid-April.